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Weekly Economic and Market Review

“We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting.” Ben Bernanke at his press conference last week following the FOMC meeting. That was – by far – the most important...

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Weekly Economic And Market Review

Well, at least August is finally over. The S&P 500 lost a bit over 5% on the month but that doesn’t begin to tell the whole story. It was one of the most volatile months on record with 15 daily...

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Trend Watcher – 2012 Expectations

Joseph A. Gomez, Sr. Investment Advisor  Will 2012 be a repeat of “Sell in May and Go Away”? Collectively, strategists are expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2012 at 1,350, which would be a gain of...

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History Repeats Itself Because No One Was Listening The First Time

File these under Joe Calhoun’s “everything has already happened” theme. In doing research for last Friday’s RealClearMarkets column I happened to read the Republican Party Platform. I was mostly...

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Einstein, Bernanke and Shampoo

Mandates are tricky enough when it comes to interpretation of how to best and most efficiently achieve them. This is especially true when the act of fostering a mandate or moving a system toward the...

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There’s That Word Again

The Federal Reserve on a few separate occasions, as I noted late last week, has begun to peremptorily quash the growing use of the loaded word “bubble”. From academic papers to Fed speeches, US...

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Greenspan Without Style

When I mentioned that Greenspan’s market has persisted long after his words fell from memory, that extended to overextended stock investors as well. By almost any measure, Ben Bernanke has outdone the...

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Fed’s ‘Taper’ Talk Is Targeted

The talk of tapering QE has been incessant the past few weeks, no doubt playing a huge role in the volatility of the US Treasury market (as if there is some competition with the JGB market)....

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If You Can’t Win, Change the Standards

In trying to sound modest and even magnanimous, Ben Bernanke in November 2010 penned an oped in the Washington Post justifying the recently implemented QE 2. Toward the end of his piece he acknowledged...

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Trend-Cycle Theory, Hiding In Revision

It is nearly impossible to spot recession and economic weakness in real time through economic accounts alone. Because of the way economic estimates are gathered and, more importantly, calculated, they...

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Bernanke Expects Downward Revisions In Jobs?

Chairman Bernanke stole the show yesterday, certainly by his accommodative and now contradictory stand. I suppose that is the danger in trying to talk “markets” toward “targets”, much like Greenspan in...

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Piling On Jobs Revisions

Seasonal adjustments have legitimate use only when there is a recognizable and relatively unbroken patterning in a data series. But most statistical agencies and their collection methods do not or...

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It’s The Fed’s World, Bonds Are Just Living In It

The JC Penney bond curve finally got the message this week that the company is in serious jeopardy, teetering close to collapse. The stock has been trending lower since February 2012, having lost some...

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Brazil May Already Be Toast

Everything that happens has already happened at some point or another in history. The tortured history of crises occurs because no one was paying attention the first time. It is eerie, though, how...

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Naked Intellectual Aggression of Kallipolis

The first paragraph of this article in the Financial Times reveals perhaps more about the inability of the policy to render any successful result than anything I have seen in a long, long time. It’s...

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In Bernanke’s Shoes

This week is a perfect illustration of the absurdity of “investing” in this activist age. It wasn’t all that long ago the Chairman of the Federal Reserve was just some obscure bureaucrat that barely...

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Stall Speed Revisit

If the government shutdown ends in the near future, there will be a data dump unlike anything we have seen before. The September jobs report at the end of October the same time as retail sales and US...

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Establishment Survey Totally Off The Rails

The ongoing divergence between the Establishment Survey (which is the “preferred” measure) and every other labor market indication was taken to an unbelievable extreme in October. Incongruous...

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The Politics of Inflation

What is most disheartening about the current political formulation on economics is the bipartisan acceptance of “inflation.” It comes from both the left and the right. That is in full part due to the...

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It’s That Time Of Year

While everyone gears up for the holiday season, particularly the Christmas break, economists and retailers are on the edge of their computer screens trying to determine and gauge the health of the...

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